Ford's (F) first-quarter earnings surprise investors as the company tops forecasts despite a slump in revenue.
Ford Motor Co. reported stronger-than-expected results for the first quarter, posting adjusted earnings per share of 14 cents and an operating profit of $1 billion, well above analysts’ projections of breakeven EPS and just $171 million in EBIT. Revenue came in at $40.7 billion, surpassing Wall Street estimates by nearly $3 billion, despite a 5% decline from the year prior.
The Dearborn-based automaker saw solid performance in its Ford Pro division, which posted $1.3 billion in EBIT on $15.2 billion in revenue. However, this was a drop from last year, driven by lower wholesale volume and weaker pricing in fleet sales. Meanwhile, Ford Blue, the company’s traditional vehicle unit, earned a modest $96 million, weighed down by volume and currency headwinds. The EV-focused Model e division continued to struggle, booking an $849 million loss for the quarter.
Though Ford’s shares initially dipped following the earnings release, they rebounded sharply, rising 4.2% in early Tuesday trading to $10.59—outperforming the broader market as the S&P 500 and Dow both slid.
Guidance Pulled Amid $1.5 Billion Tariff Threat
Despite beating expectations, Ford has pulled its full-year financial guidance, citing a murky trade environment as tariffs imposed by the Trump administration loom large. Company executives estimate that newly implemented levies could slash $1.5 billion from its 2024 EBIT, roughly 19% of the $7.8 billion midpoint previously projected for the year.
Ford, which assembles more than 80% of its U.S. vehicle sales domestically, is better insulated than rivals like General Motors (GM)—whose exposure to foreign-built inventory is significantly higher. Still, the impact is substantial. Tariffs on imported parts and vehicles are expected to raise costs by $2.5 billion this year, Ford executives said, though about $1 billion of that has been mitigated through strategic measures such as bonded transport and halting exports to China.
While GM opted to revise and lower its 2024 guidance, Ford chose to suspend its forecast entirely. “It’s still too early to fully understand our competitors’ responses to these tariffs,” CEO Jim Farley said, adding that automakers with a stronger U.S. footprint “will have a big advantage” in the current climate.
EV Losses Mount as Ford Bets on Capital Discipline
Beyond tariffs, Ford faces ongoing pressure in its transition to electric vehicles. The company’s Model e division has already posted over $10 billion in losses since 2023 and projects up to $5.5 billion more in red ink this year. A key contributing factor is the scrapping of its next-generation EV architecture, FNV4, which was delayed and over budget. CFO Sherry House framed the cancellation as a move toward greater capital efficiency.
Ford’s portfolio imbalance has also drawn criticism. The automaker’s lineup is dominated by SUVs and trucks, with only the Mustang surviving from its once-diverse car segment. In an era of affordability concerns, this strategy may be costing Ford market share, as consumers shy away from high-price models.
Analysts remain divided. While some see potential upside, the average price target from Wall Street sits below today’s share price, suggesting skepticism about near-term gains. As CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson noted, the company’s structural inefficiencies and execution gaps persist, even as executives continue to pledge a transformation into a leaner, more durable operation
With first-quarter numbers exceeding expectations but long-term clarity clouded by geopolitical and strategic challenges, Ford’s outlook is increasingly defined not by what it earns—but by what it can control.
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