The U.S. job market is showing signs of strain.  Employers added just 73,000 jobs in May, while the three-month average has slowed to roughly 35,000 new positions a month. That’s a dramatic fall from the 168,000 per month pace of 2024, and a far cry from the 336,000 monthly average under Biden. President Trump has rejected the figures, calling them “rigged,” and dismissed the official responsible for publishing the report. But economists argue the numbers reflect a labor market reshaped by Trump’s own immigration policies. By deporting workers and sharply restricting both temporary and permanent immigration, the administration is shrinking the labor force, which naturally slows job creation. Goldman Sachs Warns of “New Normal” Goldman Sachs ( GS ) economists David Mericle and Jessica Rindels warn that the hiring slowdown is not a blip but a trend. Their team now estimates the economy needs only 30,000 jobs a month to sustain full employment—less than a fifth of the average seen las...

Six months into President Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the full weight of his economic agenda is beginning to show. While his allies herald the arrival of the “Trump Economy,” a week of volatile data and mixed signals suggests storm clouds may be gathering. A historic surge in tariffs has brought in record revenue to federal coffers, but with inflation inching up and job creation sharply revised downward, signs of economic fragility are mounting. The disconnect between booming tech stocks and slumping hiring figures has underscored a two-speed economy—one that benefits from artificial intelligence innovation while struggling to preserve broader momentum. AI Boom Masks Broader Market Weakness Markets kicked off the week riding high on blockbuster earnings from tech giants Microsoft ( MSFT ) and Meta ( META ), whose advances in artificial intelligence have helped propel the Nasdaq to new heights. Microsoft briefly touched a $4 trillion valuation, only the second company in h...

The U.S. labor market faltered in July, adding just 73,000 jobs—far below expectations—and revising previous months’ estimates sharply downward. Combined, May and June job gains were slashed by a staggering 258,000, erasing what had once been seen as moderate growth and signaling a potentially more fragile economy than previously understood. July’s tepid gains mark the weakest monthly performance since late 2020, excluding periods of outright job losses. Economists say the downturn reflects both a collapse in hiring momentum and a growing impact from restrictive immigration and trade policies. The revisions to May and June, cutting them to just 19,000 and 14,000 new jobs respectively, are the steepest since the early days of the pandemic. Markets reacted swiftly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged over 600 points Friday morning, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively. Investors now widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September—odd...

The United States and European Union have reached the outline of a landmark trade deal, easing months of uncertainty and averting a more damaging tariff war. Announced Sunday by President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the framework sets a 15% baseline tariff on EU goods entering the U.S., dramatically lower than the previously threatened 30% rate. Though the deal remains provisional, it marks one of the most consequential steps in reshaping transatlantic trade policy since Trump’s return to the White House. Washington and Brussels Reach a Fragile Yet Historic Agreement The newly announced agreement establishes a 15% tariff on roughly 70% of EU exports to the United States—covering an estimated €780 billion (more than $900 billion) in goods. Sectors previously untouched by duties, including pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, will now face this new levy. European carmakers, previously subjected to tariffs of 27.5%, will also see their rate lowered ...

Consumer inflation in the U.S. edged higher in June, offering early signs that President Trump’s sweeping tariff agenda may finally be filtering through to household costs.  While the overall rise in prices was modest, several tariff-sensitive categories showed upward momentum, reigniting debate over the path of monetary policy and trade strategy. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in June, pushing the year-over-year inflation rate to 2.7%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, climbed 0.2% month-over-month and now stands at 2.9% annually — its highest since early 2024. Economists had widely expected this pickup. But the composition of the price increases is drawing closer scrutiny, as select consumer goods — particularly apparel and home furnishings — recorded notable gains, likely reflecting the onset of import tariffs announced earlier this year. While categories like used vehicles and airline fares saw declines,...

President Donald Trump’s escalating trade agenda took another sharp turn Thursday night as he threatened to raise tariffs on Canadian imports from 25% to 35%.  The announcement sent a jolt through equity markets and raising fresh concerns about cross-border supply chains. While the White House later clarified that goods compliant with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) would remain exempt—at least for now—the announcement injected renewed volatility into North American trade relations. A 35% Threat—With Exceptions Trump’s tariff announcement, made via social media, cited Canadian “financial retaliation” as the trigger for the increase. According to a White House official, USMCA-compliant goods—often exempt from tariffs entirely—will continue to avoid the full brunt of the measure. Energy products such as crude oil and key agricultural imports like potash fertilizer are also expected to maintain existing lower-duty levels, for now. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney responded...

With a self-imposed July 9 tariff deadline looming, President Donald Trump’s trade policy has taken center stage—again.  From the Rose Garden to prime-time news, Trump’s aggressive use of tariffs has become both economic lever and political spectacle. But behind the populist slogans and headline-grabbing announcements, the administration's strategy reveals contradictions, shifting goals, and a volatile global backdrop that could reshape trade—and market sentiment—for years to come. The Deadline That Moves: Trade Policy as Primetime Drama When President Trump paused his so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs in April, he gave the world 90 days to negotiate new trade terms or face duties as high as 70%. That window was supposed to close on July 9. But sources inside the White House now admit the deadline is more about optics than economics. “There’s no deadline,” said one administration official , describing the process as “theatrical.” Still, the administration is preparing to send form...

After an emotional, all-night debate, the House approved the sweeping “Big, Beautiful Bill” by a narrow 218–214 margin, advancing it to the president’s desk.  Just two Republicans—Massie and Fitzpatrick—stood firm against the legislation. President Trump plans to sign it at 5 p.m. Friday, pledging that it will spark a robust economic boom. The final package spans approximately 870 pages and raises the national debt ceiling by $5 trillion, pushing total U.S. debt past the $40 trillion mark. Over the next decade, it is expected to add nearly $4 trillion in new borrowing—a deep imprint on the nation’s fiscal future. Who Wins Big—and Who Pays Tailwinds for Wealthy, Big Business, and Traditional Energy Affluent Households: The estate tax exemption jumps to a hefty $15 million per individual (or $30 million for couples), and the 2017 income tax cuts are made permanent—measures favoring those at the top. High-Tax State Residents: The state-and-local tax deduction cap rises to $40,000 fo...

The U.S. dollar is facing a historic reckoning.  As of early July, the greenback has recorded its steepest first-half decline since 1973, falling more than 10% against a basket of major currencies. The decline reflects growing concern among global investors over U.S. economic direction, political volatility, and the unintended consequences of protectionist trade policies. A Currency Under Pressure The dollar index — which tracks the value of the greenback against currencies like the euro, yen, and pound — has fallen to a three-year low and is down roughly 5% year to date. That marks the worst first-half performance in over five decades. Fueling the decline is a combination of slower-than-expected job growth, softening inflation, and increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates before year-end. June’s employment report showed the U.S. added just 185,000 jobs, well below forecasts, while inflation cooled to 3.3% — giving the Fed room to ease mon...

Global oil markets were jolted over the weekend following a dramatic escalation in Middle East tensions.  After U.S. airstrikes destroyed three of Iran’s nuclear sites, Iran’s parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz—an oil artery vital to nearly 20% of global crude flows. While the final decision rests with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, even the suggestion of closure has injected volatility into energy markets. Crude futures briefly surged, with Brent crude topping $81 per barrel before retreating below $77 as traders digested the initial shock. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also saw sharp swings, hovering around $74 per barrel by midday Monday. Although the physical flow of oil remains largely uninterrupted, the geopolitical risk premium has risen sharply, with analysts warning of potential spikes to $120–$130 per barrel in a worst-case scenario. The Strait of Hormuz has long been considered a global chokepoint, and any disruption—whether real or threatened—has ...

Shares of Boeing Co. ( BA ) plunged nearly 5% Thursday after one of its 787-8 Dreamliners operated by Air India crashed shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad, India.  The aircraft, bound for London with 242 passengers and crew, went down just minutes into the flight. Local authorities confirmed there were no survivors. The crash marks the first fatal accident involving a 787 Dreamliner since the aircraft entered commercial service in 2011. Until now, the wide-body jet had maintained a spotless record on fatal incidents. Boeing, already reeling from years of scrutiny over the troubled 737 Max program, is now once again in the regulatory spotlight. Boeing’s stock fell as much as 8% in pre-market trading before recovering slightly. The drop translates to a market value decline of over $10 billion in just a few hours. GE Aerospace ( GE ), which supplied the GEnx-1B engines used on the downed aircraft, also saw its shares fall by over 4%, erasing billions in value. Mounting Pressure on B...