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Fed Holds Rates Steady as Trump’s Tariffs Stoke Inflation Fears

The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate for the second consecutive meeting, keeping it within the 4.25%-4.5% range.

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Despite holding rates steady, the central bank reinforced its prediction of two rate cuts later this year. However, mounting uncertainty from President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies led to adjustments in the Fed’s economic projections.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the impact of these tariffs on inflation and growth. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is now expected to reach 2.8% by the end of the year, up from the previous 2.5% estimate. Concurrently, the economic growth forecast has been revised down to 1.7% from 2.1%, and the unemployment rate is projected to rise slightly to 4.4%.

Tariffs Drive Inflation Concerns
Trump’s trade policies, which include heightened tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, have complicated the Fed’s path to its 2% inflation target. Powell noted that tariffs generally lead to increased consumer prices while dampening economic growth. Although he suggested that the inflationary effects may be “transitory,” the Fed’s patience reflects a cautious approach.

The prospect of additional tariffs looms large, with an upcoming deadline for reciprocal duties. Powell indicated that progress on curbing inflation might be delayed as tariffs drive up prices. Despite these headwinds, he maintained confidence that inflation would eventually return to the Fed’s 2% goal by 2027.

Market Reaction and Future Outlook
Markets reacted cautiously to the Fed’s decision, with investors balancing hopes of rate cuts against concerns over persistent inflation. Treasury yields edged higher following the announcement, while equities faced volatility as traders digested the economic projections.

Divergent views within the Fed also emerged. Governor Chris Waller dissented from the decision to reduce the pace of balance sheet drawdowns, signaling concern over maintaining inflation control. Meanwhile, the central bank’s widely scrutinized "dot plot" revealed that nine officials anticipate two rate cuts this year, while others foresee fewer or no cuts.

The Fed’s dual mandate of fostering maximum employment and maintaining price stability remains its central focus. As the impact of tariffs unfolds, policymakers will closely monitor economic data to assess the need for further adjustments. With Powell reiterating the Fed’s commitment to a measured response, investors and analysts alike will be watching closely for signs of whether inflation truly proves transitory or becomes a more persistent challenge.


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