Tesla (TSLA) started 2025 on a bearish note, sliding over 7% on Thursday after reporting lower-than-expected vehicle deliveries for the fourth quarter of 2024.
The electric vehicle (EV) giant delivered 495,570 vehicles globally in Q4, narrowly setting a quarterly record but falling short of analysts’ consensus estimate of 505,000 units.
The shortfall capped off a challenging year for Tesla. For 2024, the company delivered 1.79 million vehicles—its first-ever year-over-year decline—missing projections of 1.8 million and trailing 2023’s total of 1.81 million. These numbers mark a significant departure from Tesla's previous years of exponential growth, raising concerns about the company’s ability to maintain its leadership position amid intensifying competition and shifting market dynamics.
Rising Competition and a Crowded EV Landscape
Tesla’s miss comes at a time when rivals, especially in China, are gaining ground rapidly. Chinese EV manufacturers like BYD (BYDDY), XPeng (XPEV), and NIO (NIO) are leveraging aggressive pricing strategies and government incentives to boost sales. BYD, for instance, delivered an estimated 4.3 million passenger cars in 2024, with 1.76 million of those being pure EVs—just shy of Tesla’s annual total. XPeng saw deliveries surge 82% year-over-year in December, bolstered by the launch of affordable models under its MONA sub-brand.
These competitors are not only innovating faster but are also able to bring new models to market at an accelerated pace, thanks to standardized platforms. Tesla’s own efforts to spur demand, such as end-of-year discounts and incentives, were not enough to close the gap in Q4.
Looking Beyond the Numbers
Despite the challenges, Tesla bulls remain optimistic. Analysts highlight the company’s robust energy segment, which saw 114% growth in energy storage deployments in 2024, as a key area of expansion. Moreover, Tesla’s ambitious plans for 2025 include launching a more affordable EV model and accelerating the rollout of Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and robotaxi technology—both potential game-changers for its business model.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives expressed confidence in Tesla’s ability to regain momentum, projecting 20%-30% delivery growth in 2025. "The laser focus for Tesla is the 2025 reaccelerated delivery growth story and FSD penetration,” Ives noted, emphasizing that these factors could drive the company’s market cap to new heights.
Despite the challenges, Tesla bulls remain optimistic. Analysts highlight the company’s robust energy segment, which saw 114% growth in energy storage deployments in 2024, as a key area of expansion. Moreover, Tesla’s ambitious plans for 2025 include launching a more affordable EV model and accelerating the rollout of Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and robotaxi technology—both potential game-changers for its business model.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives expressed confidence in Tesla’s ability to regain momentum, projecting 20%-30% delivery growth in 2025. "The laser focus for Tesla is the 2025 reaccelerated delivery growth story and FSD penetration,” Ives noted, emphasizing that these factors could drive the company’s market cap to new heights.
The Road Ahead
Tesla’s delivery miss and year-over-year decline in 2024 have raised questions about its resilience in a rapidly evolving EV market. With competitors nipping at its heels and economic headwinds dampening demand, the company faces mounting pressure to deliver on its next-generation products and technologies.
Investors, however, are keeping their eyes on the long-term potential of Tesla’s innovations, from autonomous vehicles to energy solutions. As the EV market matures, Tesla’s ability to adapt and lead will determine whether it can maintain its dominance or cede ground to rising challengers.
Investors, however, are keeping their eyes on the long-term potential of Tesla’s innovations, from autonomous vehicles to energy solutions. As the EV market matures, Tesla’s ability to adapt and lead will determine whether it can maintain its dominance or cede ground to rising challengers.
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