Upstart Holdings (UPST) witnessed a significant surge in stock price, climbing over 34% in early trading on Friday following a strong third-quarter earnings report.
The artificial intelligence-powered lending platform reported revenue of $162 million, marking a 20% year-over-year increase and a 27% rise from the previous quarter. This performance exceeded Wall Street's forecast of $149.3 million and contributed to investor enthusiasm around Upstart's potential in a rebounding market.
Upstart also reported a smaller-than-expected adjusted loss of 6 cents per share, narrowing losses more effectively than the 15 cents analysts predicted. CEO Dave Girouard noted that the company’s 43% sequential growth in lending volume, coupled with positive adjusted EBITDA, reflects Upstart's "strengthening position as the fintech leader in artificial intelligence" despite ongoing macroeconomic challenges.
Adapting to Interest Rate Shifts
Upstart’s rise follows a turbulent period for the company. When interest rates sharply increased in 2022, Upstart, which relies on selling its loans to outside investors, saw those investors pull back due to elevated capital costs. This withdrawal led to a decline in loan volume and sent Upstart's stock from a high of $401 down to around $12 at its lowest last year. The recent change in sentiment surrounding interest rates, as well as the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut, appears to have brought investors back to Upstart’s platform.
This asset-light model, where the company doesn’t hold loans on its balance sheet, differentiates Upstart from competitors like SoFi Technologies, which operates with a banking charter and holds its loans. While SoFi’s model allows it to withstand investor pullbacks, Upstart’s marketplace-based approach is gaining favor as investors adopt a more risk-on attitude.
Financial Outlook Boosts Investor Confidence
Upstart's momentum is bolstered by positive guidance for the fourth quarter, with anticipated revenue of approximately $180 million, surpassing analysts' estimates of $175.3 million. J.P. Morgan analysts recently upgraded Upstart to Neutral from Underweight, noting “improving trends and an accelerated path to profitability” and marking this as their most optimistic view on the company since they began coverage. Similarly, Needham analysts, who currently rate Upstart as Hold, praised the company’s strong quarter and shifting economic winds but cautioned investors to look for a more favorable entry point following the stock’s recent rally.
With these results, Upstart Holdings has regained traction in the lending space, showcasing how adaptability and strategic use of AI technology can offer a competitive advantage in fluctuating economic environments. As it continues to pursue profitability and operational growth, Upstart may become a key player to watch in the fintech sector.
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