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Tesla’s Robotaxi Ambitions Face Increasing Competition

Tesla (TSLA) may have grand plans for its robotaxi network, but it’s not the only player gearing up to revolutionize the ride-hailing industry.

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While Tesla remains committed to leading the autonomous vehicle space, other giants are closing in. General Motors’ (GM) self-driving unit, Cruise, has partnered with Uber Technologies (UBER) to integrate its autonomous vehicles into Uber’s platform by 2025, marking a significant step toward a competitive robotaxi landscape.

A Growing Field of Contenders
The partnership between Cruise and Uber answers a lingering question about Uber’s self-driving strategy. Until now, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi had been cryptic about his company’s approach to autonomous vehicles, hinting at ongoing discussions with potential partners. The Cruise deal shows that Uber is serious about tapping into the autonomous vehicle market, positioning itself alongside established players like Tesla and Alphabet’s (GOOG) Waymo, which already handles 100,000 autonomous rides weekly.

RBC analyst Tom Narayan sees room for multiple players in the emerging robotaxi market. He expects Tesla to capture around 20% of the ride-hailing sector, leaving plenty of market share for competitors like Cruise and Waymo. Narayan remains bullish on Tesla, with a price target of $224, confident that Tesla’s robotaxi ambitions will ultimately materialize alongside its competitors.

Tesla’s Volatile Ride and Industry Challenges
Tesla’s stock has been on a bit of a rollercoaster lately, dropping 4% to $211.50 in today's early trading, despite a lack of major news. The stock has seen significant swings since reporting second-quarter earnings in late July, with shares moving more than 3% up or down on 15 of the past 23 trading days. The volatility continued last week, with Tesla gaining 4.6% on Friday after losing 5.7% the previous day.

While Canada’s recent announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese car imports might seem concerning, the impact on Tesla is likely minimal. The company has U.S. factories that can supply the Canadian market, mitigating the effects of the tariffs. However, the broader challenges Tesla faces, such as increased competition, lower vehicle pricing, and shrinking profit margins, have weighed on investor sentiment, contributing to the stock’s recent volatility.

Looking Ahead: Tesla’s Robotaxi Vision
Investors are eagerly awaiting Tesla’s upcoming robotaxi event in October, where CEO Elon Musk is expected to unveil a physical robotaxi and provide details on the company’s plans for launching its autonomous ride-hailing service. Musk has long touted self-driving robotaxis as a trillion-dollar opportunity, and the event will be crucial in shaping market expectations.

Tesla continues to refine its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, regularly releasing new versions that leverage AI to improve performance. However, the company recently adjusted its website language regarding FSD, signaling a more cautious approach. The updated text emphasizes that current FSD features require active driver supervision and notes that deployment depends on regulatory approval—a subtle shift from previous language that focused on achieving reliability beyond human drivers.

Tesla’s stock is down about 11% year to date, trailing the Nasdaq Composite by 30 percentage points. The decline isn’t due to robotaxi developments but rather the broader challenges facing the electric vehicle industry, including slowing sales growth and rising competition. As Tesla prepares to showcase its robotaxi progress, investors will be watching closely to see if the company can maintain its edge in an increasingly crowded field.


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