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Nvidia's Unstoppable Surge: The AI Powerhouse Defying Gravity

The Nvidia (NVDA) money-making train has only just pulled out of the station, or so says veteran tech investor Eric Jackson, founder and president of EMJ Capital. 

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Aiming for the Stars: $6 Trillion Market Cap in Sight
Jackson boldly predicted that Nvidia's market cap could double again by year-end, potentially reaching $6 trillion from its current $3.25 trillion. Jackson's optimism is fueled by his expectation of very strong earnings reports in August and November, driven by continued demand for Nvidia's H100 and H200 chips and the anticipated launch of its new AI-focused Blackwell chips. This aligns with Nvidia founder Jensen Huang's insights on demand trends back in May

"If Nvidia's earnings reports come in as expected, investors will likely be willing to pay a much higher price-to-earnings (PE) multiple for its stock," Jackson noted. Currently, Nvidia trades on a forward PE of about 50 times, nearly double the broader market multiple. Jackson believes the stock could hit 65x forward earnings, reaching around $250 per share by the end of the year. Nvidia shares trade at $131 as of this writing, up more than 170% year-to-date.
Milestones and Market Dynamics
Nvidia's year has been marked by significant milestones. On June 18, its market cap reached $3.34 trillion, briefly surpassing Microsoft (MSFT) to become the world's most valuable company. This feat was followed by the unveiling of its powerful Blackwell chips and the announcement of building AI factories.

Despite losing the most-valuable-company crown to Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft, Nvidia's dominance remains largely unchallenged. KeyBanc analyst John Vinh highlighted that demand for Nvidia's H100 remains robust despite the impending launch of Blackwell, and interest in the GB200 chips is greater than initially expected.

Market Sentiments and Analyst Perspectives
While some analysts like New Street Research's Pierre Ferragu have expressed concerns about Nvidia's valuation, citing limited further upside, the overall sentiment remains bullish. Goldman Sachs asset manager Brook Dane acknowledged the competitive landscape but affirmed Nvidia's leading position.

The excitement around Nvidia is reflected in the stock's movement, with KeyBanc recently raising its price target to $180 per share. EMJ Capital's Eric Jackson believes that Nvidia's upward trajectory could see the stock reaching between $200 and $250 per share by the end of the year.

Navigating the Risks and Future Outlook
Despite Nvidia's remarkable rise, analysts warn of a highly concentrated market and the risks it poses. The S&P 500's gains this year have been heavily driven by Nvidia, leading to concerns about market concentration. The divergence between the S&P 500 and the equal-weighted index is the widest since the 1990s.

Peter Garnry, Saxo's chief investment strategist, emphasized the unprecedented concentration level in the market, posing significant risks to equity markets and portfolios. He noted that the US equity market's current low correlation environment increases the risk of a sudden broad-based selloff.

Conclusion: A Bright Future with Cautious Optimism
Nvidia's stock has seen a meteoric rise, driven by surging demand for its AI chips and strong financial performance. However, investors must remain cautious about the potential risks and market dynamics. While Nvidia's future looks promising, maintaining a balanced portfolio and being aware of market concentrations will be crucial for navigating the road ahead.

With Nvidia at the forefront of the AI revolution, its growth story is far from over. Investors will be closely watching the company's earnings reports and market developments, hoping to ride the wave of this AI powerhouse's success.


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