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Navigating the Future: A Comprehensive Outlook on 2024

Unveiling the Financial Tapestry: Deepwater Asset Management's 2024 Predictions

In this comprehensive article, we delve into the financial foresight of Deepwater Asset Management, dissecting their 13 carefully crafted predictions for the year 2024. As experts in the realm of financial forecasting, Deepwater's insights are not merely glimpses into the future but a showcase of strategic understanding and data-driven analysis. Let's take a look at their projections.

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1. IWO Outshines SP500

Prediction: The iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO) will outperform the SPDR S&P 500 EFT Trust (SPY). Performance from the sub-$20B tech companies will outperform the large cap companies.

Reasoning: Prepare for IWO's ascent as the iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO) positions itself to outshine the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). This projection extends beyond mere market dynamics; it's a forecast of a nuanced shift where sub-$20B tech companies are anticipated to outperform their larger counterparts. The stage is set for these agile and innovative players to demonstrate superior performance, offering investors a potential avenue for robust returns. Keep a watchful eye on this dynamic landscape as smaller tech entities pave the way, showcasing resilience and growth potential in a market often dominated by larger players.

2. Tech Giants' Acquisitive Strategies

Prediction: Large cap technology platform will be acquisitive in 2024. Companies spent the last two years rationalizing spend and consolidating the number of vendors that they work with. We’ve seen the larger platform companies, like CRWD, PANW, and DDOG outperform in 2023, as their customers turned to them for more and more products in their portfolio. We think these companies will be acquisitive in the coming year as they continue to add point solutions to their platforms.

Reasoning: In the ever-evolving tech landscape, anticipate a strategic reshaping as major tech platforms, including CRWDPANW, and DDOG, prepare for acquisitions in 2024. This shift follows two years of fiscal prudence, where companies meticulously rationalized spending and streamlined vendor relationships. In 2023, the prowess of larger platform companies became evident, with CRWD, PANW, and DDOG outperforming as customers sought an expanding portfolio of their products. The upcoming year is poised for these giants to embrace a proactive stance, engaging in acquisitions to augment their platforms with innovative solutions. This strategic move not only aims for market dominance but underscores a broader industry trend, emphasizing collaborative synergies to navigate the dynamic tech landscape.

3. Intelligent Alpha AI's Market Prowess

Prediction: Doug Clinton’s Intelligent Alpha AI powered investment strategies outperform their major market benchmarks.

Reasoning: Doug Clinton's Intelligent Alpha AI takes the spotlight, positioned to outshine established market benchmarks. The fusion of machine learning and investment strategies not only signifies a technological leap but also underscores a paradigm shift in how financial markets respond to the ever-increasing complexity of data and information.

4. Apple's Evolution in AI and Vision

Prediction: Apple will bring generative AI to Siri. Apple’s Ajax foundation model will power a generative AI version of Siri (likely announced at WWDC), adding more personalization and natural conversation to Siri.

Reasoning: Forecasting innovation, Apple (AAPL) takes a pioneering leap by introducing generative AI to Siri. Positioned at the forefront of technology, Apple's Ajax foundation model is set to empower a generative AI version of Siri, likely unveiled at WWDC. This transformative shift aims to infuse Siri with enhanced personalization and natural conversational abilities, showcasing a deliberate decision to postpone additional Vision product line announcements. This strategic move unveils an intricate fusion of innovation and market strategy, emphasizing Apple's dedication to providing not just products but immersive experiences aligned with the evolving expectations of today's consumer landscape.

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5. Apple's Evolution in Vision

Prediction: Apple will not announce any additional devices in the Vision product line. It has been reported Apple is already working on a cheaper ($1,500), less advanced version of the soon to be released Vision Pro headset. We believe Vision Pro needs time to gain traction with developers in the market before a lesser model is released. We expect Apple will sell between 400k-500k Vision Pro’s in 2024.

Reasoning: Apple's (AAPL) might refrain from introducing additional devices in the Vision product line, opting for a deliberate strategy. Reports suggest Apple is diligently crafting a more accessible, yet less advanced, version of the soon-to-be-launched Vision Pro headset, priced at $1,500. The decision to withhold further product line announcements signifies Apple's commitment to allowing Vision Pro to establish a foothold among developers before introducing a more economical model. Forecasts indicate Apple is poised to sell between 400,000 to 500,000 Vision Pro units in 2024. This calculated approach aligns with Apple's overarching goal of gradual market penetration and strategic product lifecycle management.

6. Apple's Strategic Move: Acquiring Peloton

Prediction: Apple will acquire Peloton. Apple will look to bolster their workout segment in 2024 by adding fitness equipment to compliment the Watch and fitness tracking software. Peloton has a loyal subscriber base of about 3 million users that will add about $1.7B to Apple’s subscription revenue, additionally this fits well into Apple’s continued investment in health and wellness

Reasoning: Embarking on a strategic move, Apple's (AAPL) is set to acquire Peloton (PTON), marking a significant foray into the fitness domain in 2024. Explore the symbiotic relationship between Apple's ecosystem and Peloton's robust subscriber base of approximately 3 million users. This acquisition is projected to contribute a substantial $1.7 billion to Apple's subscription revenue, aligning seamlessly with Apple's ongoing commitment to health and wellness. Delve into the financial and strategic implications of this synergy, showcasing Apple's dedication to providing a comprehensive consumer experience that seamlessly integrates technology and health, further solidifying its position as a leader in the evolving landscape of health-centric technologies..

7. Tesla's Calculated Silence on Robotaxi

Prediction: The Tesla Robotaxi will not be announced. In 2024, I believe its in Tesla’s best interest to stay quiet on the Robotaxi. The new vehicle’s selling “feature” is its price and Tesla showcasing the upcoming vehicle would likely have a cooling effect on current low-priced Model 3 sales, a risk not worth taking in a year where EV sales will continue to muted. On top of that, the car will likely be produced in Giga Mexico which we believe won’t be operational until 2027.

Reasoning: Tesla (TSLAmight strategically refrain from announcing the Robotaxi in 2024. This calculated decision aligns with Tesla's nuanced approach to safeguard the allure of their current offerings, particularly the low-priced Model 3, whose competitive edge lies in its affordability. A premature unveiling of the Robotaxi could potentially dampen the sales momentum of the existing Model 3, a risk deemed unwarranted in a year where electric vehicle sales are expected to remain subdued. Moreover, the forthcoming vehicle is anticipated to be manufactured in Giga Mexico, a facility projected to become operational only by 2027. This production timeline not only shapes Tesla's strategic choices but also reflects a forward-thinking approach, ensuring that market dynamics and production capabilities align for a seamless introduction of their innovative offerings. Tesla's meticulous balance between innovation and market responsiveness exemplifies their commitment to sustained growth in the fiercely competitive electric vehicle landscape.

8. Steadfast US EV Market Share for Tesla

Prediction: Tesla will maintain US EV market share. While most investors expect Tesla to lose share in 2024 given they have almost 60% US market share today, we believe the company will maintain share as traditional car makers are slowing their investments in EVs.

Reasoning: In the face of escalating electric vehicle (EV) competition, Tesla (TSLA) stands resilient, poised to uphold its commanding market share in the United States. This projection challenges the prevailing expectation of a market share decline in 2024, given Tesla's current near 60% share. Contrary to this anticipation, our analysis suggests that Tesla will maintain its share, attributing this resilience to the deliberate deceleration of investments in EVs by traditional automakers. This strategic move positions Tesla not just as a technological frontrunner but as a company attuned to consumer preferences and adept at navigating the intricate terrain of evolving regulatory frameworks. Tesla's unwavering market presence underscores a synthesis of innovation, strategic planning, and a keen understanding of the evolving automotive landscape.

9. EV Temporary Slowdown in 2024 and an Optimistic Rebound in 2025

Prediction: While EVs growth will slow in 2024, it will rebound in 2025. We expect EV deliveries in the US to grow by about 25% in 2024, down from over 40% in 2023. We expect growth to reaccelerate in 2025 as consumer optimism around the category improves along with affordability.

Reasoning: Despite a projected deceleration in electric vehicle (EV) growth for 2024, a resurgence is anticipated in 2025. Forecasts indicate a growth rate of approximately 25% in EV deliveries in the United States for 2024, marking a decline from the robust 40% growth witnessed in 2023. This temporary slowdown aligns with evolving market dynamics. Anticipate a rejuvenation in 2025 as consumer optimism surrounding the EV category gains momentum, coupled with improved affordability. This upward trajectory underscores the resilience of the EV market, navigating fluctuations and laying the groundwork for a renewed surge driven by both consumer enthusiasm and accessible pricing structures. The shift reflects a cyclical pattern, affirming the enduring appeal and growing prominence of electric vehicles in the automotive landscape.

10. IPO Renaissance in 2024

Prediction: The IPO market returns to 2019 levels. This year saw 153 IPOs, down from 181 the year prior. We think the number of IPOs will climb above 200 in 2024, being closer to 2019 levels.

Reasoning: A revival is on the horizon as the IPO market gears up to surpass the heights of 2019, with expectations of exceeding 200 new offerings in 2024. This impending surge sets the financial stage for an Initial Public Offering (IPO) renaissance, transcending the 153 IPOs recorded this year, a slight decrease from the 181 in the preceding year. Beyond mere economic optimism, this resurgence signifies a broader shift toward embracing fresh investment opportunities and fostering avenues for capital infusion into emerging and dynamic sectors, painting a promising picture for the financial landscape.

11. TTWO's Gaming Ascendancy with GTA VI Hype

Prediction: The anticipation of GTA VI makes TTWO the best performing US gaming stock in 2024. In December, Rockstar Games released the trailer for GTA VI, citing a 2025 release date. Given company commentary, it seems likely the game will be released in the first quarter of calendar 2025. As the release date approaches, we think shares of TTWO will outperform its US-peers EA and RBLX.

Reasoning: Positioning itself as a gaming stock frontrunner, Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) anticipates a stellar performance in 2024, driven by the fervent anticipation surrounding the release of GTA VI. The unveiling of the game's trailer by Rockstar Games in December, with a slated 2025 release date, has already generated substantial buzz. With company commentary hinting at a potential first-quarter release in 2025, TTWO stands poised for exceptional growth. As the release date approaches, we forecast that TTWO's shares will outshine its US peers EA and RBLX, reflecting the gaming industry's unique ability to capitalize on cultural phenomena. This strategic positioning underscores the increasing importance of entertainment dynamics in shaping broader market trends, further cementing TTWO's prominence in the gaming sector.

12. Reddit's Data Valhalla

Prediction: Reddit will be acquired for their data. A company with a LLM will buy Reddit to train its model from.

Reasoning: In the era of data-driven insights, Reddit emerges as a highly coveted acquisition target, a veritable treasure trove for companies seeking to harness the power of Large Language Models (LLM). The impending acquisition is not just a transaction but a strategic move that holds the potential to reshape data-driven decision-making across industries. The far-reaching implications for the tech sector are brought into sharp focus as the convergence of data and strategic insights promises to redefine the paradigms of information acquisition and utilization. This transformative step signifies a profound shift in how companies leverage data, accentuating the role of platforms like Reddit as invaluable repositories of information that fuel the development and refinement of cutting-edge Large Language Models.

13. AI Intricacies and the 2024 Election

Prediction: AI will negatively impact the 2024 Presidential Election. Intentionally misleading content will be released to interfere with the election (e.g., deepfakes)

Reasoning: The convergence of artificial intelligence and politics embarks on a disquieting trajectory, unveiling the emergence of intentional misinformation, including the ominous specter of deepfakes, as a potential disruptor in the 2024 Presidential Election. This unsettling development prompts an exploration of the far-reaching consequences for democratic processes and the erosion of public trust in information. The intricate interplay between technology and politics unravels a narrative that underscores the imperative for heightened vigilance in safeguarding the integrity of information within the realms of democratic governance. This critical lens offers a sobering reflection on the challenges posed by the intersection of advanced technologies and the foundational principles of democratic discourse, emphasizing the urgent need for comprehensive safeguards in preserving the sanctity of political processes.

A Look Back at Deepwater Asset Management's 2023 Predictions

We went 8.5 for 10 on our 2023 predictions. 
  1. We believe that FAANG will outperform the S&P in 2023. Got it.
  2. Apple will show its MR headset in late 2023. Got it.
  3. Tesla will wait until 2024 to announce Model 2. Missed.
  4. F-150 Lightning will outsell Cybertruck in 2023. Got it.
  5. Global EV sales will be a disappointment in 2023 given a slowdown in the broader new car market. Got it.
  6. Private equity will be active in taking tech companies private in 2023. Got it.
  7. A wave of unicorns will go bankrupt. Got it.
  8. A thought on the Macro. Got it.
(Read Full Article here.)


As we reflect on our 2023 predictions and step into the uncharted territory of 2024, each projection reveals a new layer in the narrative of technological evolution, market dynamics, and societal shifts. Stay tuned for a journey through the unpredictable waters of the future, where foresight and adaptability intersect to shape the landscape of innovation and strategic resilience.

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